The Home Video Industry is at a juncture where the digital revolution (personal screens on 3G/4G driven capability, and the availability of an increasing number of channels to view movies - such as Netflix Downloads, Blockbuster Downloads, as well as PS3 downloads) is questioning the sustainability of the material disc media market. Do consumers want to continue to purchase new disc media such as Blu Ray, and DVD? What are the driving factors for consumer decisions on the home video market - Intellectual property (the title), packaging, convenience, perception of ownership, price points, or others?

Faced with this challenge, a leading Blu Ray disc manufacturer (also called a 'replicator') approached Xavor Corporation to conduct a market intelligence analysis and develop Statistical Forecasting tools to come up with an aggregate volume for fiscal year 2010-2011. Xavor went through this study in two phases - the first part was Qualitative, where several key stakeholders in the supply chain, including key customers (six major studio executives) were interviewed, and a phenomenological direction was obtained on the perceived trends. The second stage was quantitative, where a Top-Down Market driven model (Bass Diffusion model), as well as historical data-driven time series analysis was conducted. Among the tested models, Winter's Additive and Multiplicative models showed significant forecasting consistency, with results showing a flat demand curve for the market for at least one year. The study noted some emerging factors behind continued disc media market potential, such as more titles with 3-D that are being introduced in the market.

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